For the first companies to obtain a state-guaranteed loan in the spring of 2020, the time has come to start repaying it. However, 55% of them have decided to take advantage of the one-year deferral option offered by the Ministry of the Economy and Finance at the beginning of the year.
State-guaranteed loans massively distributed by banks
In the space of a year, almost 670,000 companies have benefited from state-guaranteed loans (PGE), for a total amount of 135.9 billion euros. Initially intended to be repaid over a maximum period of 6 years, after a one-year grace period, PGEs have evolved as the health crisis has progressed.
Since January 14, 2021, following an agreement established between the banking sector and the French Ministry of the Economy and Finance, companies wishing to do so can request deferment for a further year. Thus, an EMP obtained in March 2020 can be repaid from March 2022.
Despite this 2-year deferral, the Banque de France estimated in February 2021 that between 4.5% and 6% of EMPs could default and not be repaid, resulting in a loss of between 6 and 8 billion euros.
These potential losses have been revised upwards by Bpifrance, which now estimates them at between 7.5 and 11 billion euros, corresponding to a non-repayment of 5.5% to 8% of PGEs.
Most companies opt for a 2-year grace period
According to a study carried out by the French Banking Federation (FBF), involving 430,000 PGEs whose repayment schedule has already been set, 55% of the companies concerned have already opted to benefit from this second blank year.
And yet, half of all companies with a government-backed loan still have the full amount in their account. In most cases, therefore, this is aprecautionary measure rather than an inability to repay.
With the health situation showing no signs of improvement, and a third national containment in place, the outlook is bleak, and companies are taking precautions.
According to FBF figures, which are subject to change over the coming weeks :
- only 12% of companies with an EMP have opted to repay it from 2021,
- 9% will amortize it between 2024 and 2025,
- 5% between 2022 and 2023,
- 74% have opted for the longest possible repayment term, with monthly payments ending in 2026.