The report by the committee for monitoring and assessing business support measures, submitted to the Prime Minister on Tuesday July 27, underlines the effectiveness of the various measures, and calls on the government to maintain them after August, in view of the health uncertainty.
The impact of business support measures: a positive assessment
At the start of the health crisis, in the spring of 2020, a committee to monitor and evaluate business support measures was set up by the amended finance law of March 23, 2020. Chaired by economist Benoît Coeuré and made up of various public finance specialists, the committee was tasked with analyzing the effects of the various aids aimed at businesses.
In its report, submitted to Jean Castex on Tuesday July 27, the committee highlights the positive results of the support measures, believing that they have achieved their objectives.
Thus, despite the health crisis, French purchasing power increased in 2020, thanks in part to the short-time working scheme. The decline in salaried employment was limited to 1.2% between Q4 2019 and Q1 2021.
On the business side, the report notes a decrease in the number of insolvencies, and an increase in the number of business start-ups in 2020. In addition, the margin rate for businesses rose in 2021, after holding steady in 2020 compared with 2019.
Concerns in an uncertain economic and health context
However, the Comité de Suivi et d'Evaluation des Mesures de Soutien aux Entreprises (Monitoring and Assessment Committee for Business Support Measures) has drawn the government's attention to a number of points that could prove problematic if the aid is stopped at the end of August.
In a press release, the committee points out that "there is still a great deal of health uncertainty ", due in particular to the rapid spread of the Delta variant, hence the importance of " carefully dosing the release of devices ", declared Benoît Coeuré when presenting the report to the press.
" This incentive logic is absolutely justified in the context of a rapid recovery, but the uncertainty is there, and if this recovery does not materialize, or if it is less strong than expected, we need to be able to modulate the rate of exit from the schemes ", he added.
The committee also stresses the great fragility of a minority of very small businesses, which might not survive a halt to the support measures. It points out that France, with the exception of Great Britain, would be the first European country to terminate these measures if they were not extended beyond August.
This call for caution is shared by many professionals, worried about the impact of the health pass on their business. Cinemas, for example, have seen a significant drop in attendance since the health pass was introduced on July 21. The Syndicat National des Spaces de Loisirs, d'Attractions et Culturels (National Union of Leisure, Amusement and Cultural Spaces) and Umih, the hotel and catering trade union, have also expressed their fears.
This concern was clearly heard by the Prime Minister, who declared on July 28 on RTL that he would receive on August 30 " all the sectors to which a health pass has been imposed ", adding: " As we have been present since the first day of this crisis, we will be present at the end of the summer for those who will have been impacted".